Likud Leads Israeli Election But Falls Short of Governing Majority

Israeli voters cast 77.7% of ballots in Tuesday's general election, the highest turnout recorded since 1999. With over 80% of the vote counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party holds the largest single bloc, but it lacks the seats necessary to form a government on its own.

The Netanyahu coalition, which includes ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties, is projected to win 53 seats. This total falls eight seats short of the 61 required to command a majority in the Knesset. In contrast, the centrist bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, known as the change bloc, saw its lead in early exit polls vanish as real counts were tallied, leaving it with 48 seats.

The most dramatic shift in the legislature came from the Arab parties, which nearly doubled their representation to 19 seats. This surge has created a mathematical hurdle for both major contenders because both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have previously ruled out including Arab-led parties in their governing coalitions.

Netanyahu addressed supporters at 3 a.m. Israel time, stating that Likud remains the biggest party in the state of Israel. He described the country as stronger than ever and credited President Donald Trump for tackling the Iranian threat. He warned against forming a government that leans on anti-Zionist Arab parties, calling for a strong national right-wing administration.

Gadi Eisenkot declared victory early Wednesday morning, arguing that the public voted for change and that the Netanyahu era was over. He pledged to work with his partners to establish a Zionist and stable government. Naftali Bennett, head of the second-largest party in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, confirmed that parties are coordinating to form a government and declared that Netanyahu lost.

Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra’am party, told Channel 12 that his party is interested in joining Eisenkot's bloc, though he is in contact with officials from both sides. Yousef Jabareen, chairman of the Joint List, called the vote historic and urged the removal of what he termed the bloodshed government. Bezalel Smotrich, finance minister, urged caution, noting that the military vote is still pending and suggesting the Netanyahu bloc might grow.

Professor Jonathan Rynhold of Bar-Ilan University noted that Netanyahu outperformed pre-election polls but cannibalized his own right-wing bloc. He concluded that without a massive change, Netanyahu does not have a government, though he warned the opposition may struggle to form one if it sticks to excluding Arab parties.