Israel Votes as Oct. 7 Haunts Race

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday to determine the next government, a process widely viewed as a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving prime minister. The vote takes place against the backdrop of a tight race with his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff. While voters select political parties rather than individual leaders, the outcome will hinge on post-election negotiations to form a majority coalition in the Knesset, a body where no single party has ever held a majority.

The legacy of the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, dominates the political discourse. That day, militants killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted 251 others. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based think tank, approximately 68% of Jewish Israelis identify their reaction to the events of that day as a central factor in their voting decision. Campaigns have focused heavily on security failures and the societal burden of war, rather than the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

Netanyahu, 77, leads the Likud party and has maintained a hawkish stance on all fronts, including Iran. He has resisted calls for a formal commission of inquiry into the security breakdown on October 7. His opponents criticize his handling of that day and his coalition's policy of exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service. This exemption policy has angered many Israelis during a period of protracted conflict.

Military service remains a dividing line. About a quarter of Jewish voters polled by the Israel Democracy Institute ranked mandatory service as a key factor in their choice. Netanyahu's governing coalitions have traditionally relied on ultra-Orthodox parties that demand these exemptions for men engaged in religious studies. Eisenkot, 66, who lost his son and two nephews in combat in Gaza, has vowed to end these de facto exemptions. He leads the centrist Yashar party, which he entered in 2022 after a four-decade military career.

Other prominent figures in the contest include Naftali Bennett, a 54-year-old former prime minister who has formed a joint ticket with Yair Lapid. Itamar Ben-Gvir, 50, serves as national security minister and leads a far-right ultranationalist party within the current coalition. Yair Golan, 64, a former general, leads the center-left Democrats party, which favors establishing a Palestinian state. Over three dozen parties are competing, though only about a dozen are expected to win enough seats to enter parliament.

International dynamics weigh on the election. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, a move expected to boost the incumbent's standing. The U.S. midterm election is scheduled for next week, with Israeli policy featuring prominently in American campaigns. The alliance between the United States and Israel has been tested by the unresolved war with Iran, which both countries launched together on February 28. Regional talks continue as Iran assesses the risk of renewed conflict.

Israel's global standing has declined due to the war in Gaza. An international arrest warrant exists against Netanyahu, and rights groups along with U.N. officials have accused the country of committing genocide, a claim Israel denies. Mansour Abbas, leader of the Ra'am party, has focused his campaign on crime in Arab communities rather than the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He has named a mainstream Jewish politician as his deputy to position Ra'am as a potential coalition partner. The next government will face the task of repairing Israel's international image and relationships.