Youth votes may decide 12 Knesset seats

An estimated 640,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote in the Oct. 27 election, a demographic bloc large enough to determine up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, these first-time voters represent nearly 10% of the total electorate, making their participation a decisive factor in the upcoming results. The high stakes have prompted political campaigns to target this group aggressively, recognizing that their collective choice could tip the balance between the current government and opposition coalitions.

Surveys indicate strong intent to participate among this age group. In a May study, 80% to 95% of young Jewish and Arab respondents stated they were likely or definite to cast a ballot. This figure exceeds the 47% youth turnout recorded in the United States during the 2024 presidential election, as noted by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. Tammy Hoffman, who leads the education policy program at the Israel Democracy Institute, emphasized that Israel's high birth rate ensures a large pool of new voters. She warned that if turnout matches the survey projections, this cohort will materially impact the final seat count.

National security and the cost of living emerged as the top priorities for young voters in both Jewish and Arab communities. Hoffman noted that this generation has grown up in a period of instability, navigating the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the war that began after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. While military service often correlates with right-wing leanings, Hoffman observed that it can also prompt questions about war goals. A Sept. 23 poll by N12 found that 74% of young people identified as right-wing or center-right, yet mock elections in high schools showed many students supporting opposition parties like Yashar and Beyachad.

Individual voters across different backgrounds cited specific economic and security concerns. Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, said she plans to vote for an opposition party to challenge a government she views as corrupt. Omer Gross from Jerusalem, currently in an army preparation program, intends to support the Religious Zionist party despite disagreements over Gaza policy. In the north, Khalel Alaa Sabeh, an 18-year-old from Shefa-Amr, expressed a desire for increased funding for Arab municipalities and stronger action against crime. These varied motivations reflect a generation focused on tangible outcomes in housing, security, and public service.