Likud Officials Clash Over Polling Data and Turnout Efforts Before Vote

Likud members are split on their likelihood of winning the election scheduled for Tuesday, with disagreements centering on the effectiveness of opposition turnout strategies. One party source described a division between those who trust the party’s internal data and those who fear the impact of independent mobilization efforts. The vote is set for October 27, a date that allows the current government to serve a full term.

Confidence within the party rests largely on the forecasts of Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud’s internal polling. A Likud source characterized the uncertainty by stating, “Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other.” This sentiment reflects a lack of consensus among senior figures regarding the final outcome.

A primary concern for the party is the financial activity of nonprofits and organizations supporting candidates opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Party sources claim these groups are spending large sums on social media campaigns, public signage, field events, and transportation for Arab voters. They also allege efforts to bring Israelis living abroad back to the country to cast ballots. One source labeled this push “the nonprofits affair on steroids,” arguing it provides an extensive support network that operates outside standard party financing rules.

Likud has criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing on campaign video limits and public resource use while overlooking these organizational activities. Party sources stated that the activity may have broken the law, though they did not provide specific documentation of funding amounts to support that claim.

The party is organizing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day to monitor polling stations and prevent right-wing votes from shifting to smaller parties. Negotiations to persuade Brig. Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, leader of the People of Israel party, to withdraw from the race failed. Rabbi Eli Sadan later issued a statement backing Winter. Likud is also courting supporters of the joint ticket led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already dropped out after discussions included a proposal for legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister.

A survey released days before the vote indicated that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided. This segment of the electorate is expected to be a target for both camps in the final hours before polls open.