Trump's support drops among key 2024 voter groups

President Donald Trump faces a weakening coalition among the voter groups that helped him win the 2024 election. New data indicates his net approval has declined sharply among Latino voters, young adults, and Black respondents since the start of his second term.

The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, conducted from Oct. 14 to 18, measured the shifting landscape of public opinion. The poll sampled 1,000 registered voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. It was co-led by Democratic pollster Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies.

In the April 2025 survey, Trump entered his second term with a net economic approval rating that was already negative. That initial dip coincided with public reaction to the tariff regime and market turmoil. By April 2026, the launch of the Iran war drove his net economic approval to its lowest point, matching the depths seen under President Joe Biden during the pandemic aftermath.

The decline has been most pronounced among specific demographics. Net approval among Latino voters dropped from -22 to -38. For voters aged 18 to 34, the rating fell from -28 to -53. Black respondents saw their net approval move from -55 to -67. Overall, the president's net approval among all registered voters has slipped from -7 at the start of the term to -19 in the current survey.

These shifts are complicating the Republican strategy for the midterm elections scheduled for next week. Although Trump is not on the ballot, the survey shows that interest in the election is 10 points lower among Republicans than among Democrats. In tight races, turnout often determines the outcome. Republicans currently lead the race for congressional control by 7 points, a 3-point gain since July.

Economic concerns remain the primary driver of disapproval. Trump's net economic approval has plunged to -31 in the latest data. Economic disapproval reached 65%, the highest level measured by CNBC for any president since Barack Obama. This figure is one point higher than Biden's worst showing. The survey also notes increasing frustration with inflation and the handling of immigration.

Despite the negative trend, the president maintains strong support within his core base. Self-described Trump voters still give him a net approval of +65, down from +85 in 2025. Identification with the MAGA movement sits at 90% approval. However, the survey indicates that the extra votes from the 2024 coalition will be harder to secure for Republican congressional candidates in 2026.