Sherrill approval falls 10 points as uncertainty grows among New Jersey Democrats

New Jersey voters are less certain about Governor Mikie Sherrill's performance than they were seven months ago, according to a poll released Wednesday. The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll found that 12% of respondents said they did not know or were unsure about the governor's job approval. This represents a sharp increase from the March survey, which also showed a higher overall approval rating for Sherrill.

Sherrill's approval rating dropped 10 points to 48% in October. In March, her approval stood at 58%. Her disapproval rating remained steady at 32% in both surveys. The shift is driven by the rise in undecided voters rather than a change in those who actively disapprove of her leadership. Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics and executive director of the FDU Poll, noted that attitudes toward a governor typically become more certain over time, not less.

The decline is most visible among Democratic voters. In March, 88% of Democrats said they approved of Sherrill's job performance. That number fell to 71% in the October poll. Cassino suggested that the uncertainty may stem from the Democratic brand being unpopular nationally and a growing number of voters identifying as progressive or liberal. He described the current situation as a blinking yellow light for the administration.

Sherrill faced several controversies since the last survey. She requested the resignation of Lieutenant Governor Dale Caldwell after an independent investigation found he had sexually harassed a staff member and made other ethical errors. Caldwell denies the findings. Sherrill also drew criticism from some progressives for using state police to manage protests outside the Delaney Hall ICE detention center in Newark. Protesters argued the police used riot gear and horseback units in a manner that mirrored the actions of ICE officers.

President Donald Trump faces even starker numbers in New Jersey. The poll found that 66% of voters disapprove of the president's job performance. Only 29% approve, while 5% said they did not know or declined to answer. Among self-identified MAGA voters, Trump holds a 95% approval rating. His approval drops to 68% among conservatives and 21% among moderates.

Cassino noted that although Trump is not running for re-election, his low approval ratings are affecting Republican candidates in the state. He said the president is dragging down down-ballot Republican candidates because he is the visible face of the party. This dynamic is relevant as the midterm elections approach on November 3.

The elections will determine control of the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. National polls suggest Democrats are likely to flip the House. In New Jersey's 7th District, two-term Republican Representative Tom Kean Jr. is considered vulnerable. His Democratic challenger, former Navy pilot Rebecca Bennett, is currently favored to win the seat.

In the 2nd District, Republican Representative Jeff Van Drew appears to be in more solid ground. However, his Democratic challenger, Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock, is gaining attention as analysts predict a potential blue wave in the state. The October survey was conducted from October 16 through 22 by Braun Research of Princeton on behalf of Fairleigh Dickinson University. The sample included 805 voters reached via text-to-web surveys.