Hochul Opens 14-Point Gap Over Blakeman

Kathy Hochul leads Bruce Blakeman by 14 points in a new statewide survey, a gap that has widened since the fall campaign began. The Siena Research Institute released the data on Wednesday, indicating the Democratic incumbent is extending her advantage as Election Day approaches.

The poll shows Hochul ahead 54% to 40% among likely voters. In September, her lead stood at 50% to 41%. Steven Greenberg, the institute’s director, attributed the shift to a lack of momentum for the Republican challenger. He stated that Blakeman is running out of time to close a gap that is expanding rather than shrinking.

The results reveal vulnerabilities for Blakeman in key voting districts. He remains nearly even with Hochul in upstate New York and downstate suburbs. However, she leads independents by 11 points. Greenberg noted that Republicans typically require strong performance in these regions and among independents to counterbalance the Democrats' registration edge and their strength in New York City.

Economic sentiment remains mixed among voters. Thirty-five percent of respondents said neither candidate would improve affordability for average New Yorkers. Thirty percent selected Hochul, while 27 percent picked Blakeman. The survey also marked a shift in the governor’s personal standing. Her favorable rating reached 51%, surpassing the 45% unfavorable rating. This is the first time a majority has viewed her favorably in Siena polling during her five years in office.

Hochul’s job approval increased to 51% from 48% in the previous month. Blakeman’s favorable rating stood at 39%, with 40% viewing him unfavorably. The data shows a distinct split by gender and race. Hochul leads by 23 points among women and by eight points among Black voters. Blakeman and Hochul are closely divided among White voters.

Most respondents expect the incumbent to hold the seat. Sixty-eight percent of likely voters believe Hochul will win the election. Twenty-three percent predicted a victory for Blakeman. Among Republicans themselves, 40% expect Hochul to prevail. In other statewide races, Attorney General Letitia James leads Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%.

Siena collected responses from 807 likely New York voters between October 19 and 22. The survey used telephone and text-to-web methods. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.