Israeli Election Yields No Majority as Arab Bloc Holds 17 Seats

Neither the governing nor the opposition blocs secured a majority in the Israeli Knesset following Tuesday's election. With nearly 80 percent of votes counted by Wednesday afternoon, the coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held 54 seats. The opposition alliance led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot held 49 seats. Neither group reached the 61 seats needed to form a government.

The Ra'am party and the Joint List, both dominated by Arab members, hold 17 seats between them. This number is enough to grant either major bloc a majority to appoint a speaker and pass legislation. The final tally is expected by Friday, with official results due on November 4.

Turnout for the election reached 77.7 percent of eligible voters. This is the highest rate recorded since 1999. Estimates suggest turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel reached approximately 80 percent. Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University who studies Israeli voting behavior, attributed the surge to a well-organized campaign. He noted that running just two well-organized lists improved mobilization, particularly for the Islamist Ra'am party.

President Isaac Herzog will begin the next phase by consulting with party leaders. He will task the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That candidate has 28 days to assemble a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If they fail, the mandate passes to another member of parliament. If that attempt also fails, the Knesset is dissolved and new elections are held, leaving the current cabinet in place as caretakers.

Critics described the campaigns of both major blocs as deeply divisive. Likud filed a petition to bar the Joint List from running and made claims that the opposition planned to rely on Arab parties. Avigdor Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beiteinu party is part of the opposition, ruled out a coalition with Arab or ultra-Orthodox parties. Naftali Bennett, whose previous government included Ra'am, stated there was no mandate to govern with Arab parties after the October 7, 2023 attack.

Former government adviser Daniel Levy outlined four possible paths forward. These include a new election, Likud drawing defectors from the right wing of the opposition, a Netanyahu-led unity government, or an Eisenkot-led minority government with Arab support. Levy considered the last option unlikely but noted the Arab parties would not demand a high price for their support.

Mairav Zonszein of the Crisis Group said it would be difficult for Eisenkot to work with Netanyahu's camp. She cited Eisenkot's demands for a state commission of inquiry into October 7 and a universal draft that includes ultra-Orthodox men. Zonszein noted that Bennett has changed political positions in the past, while Lieberman remains a hard-right politician despite his rivalry with Netanyahu.

Some analysts suggested the government might seek a military escalation, potentially against Iran, to justify an emergency government. Daniel Bar Tal, a political psychologist at Tel Aviv University, described the moment as challenging. He said many Israelis want change but do not want to cooperate with Arab parties.