Ravens face Bills with playoff odds on the line

The Baltimore Ravens (4-3) travel to Orchard Park, New York, to face the Buffalo Bills (5-1) on Sunday in a matchup that will define their short-term trajectory. The contest occurs at the new Highmark Stadium, the site where Baltimore suffered a 41-40 loss to Buffalo last season.

The Ravens enter the game following back-to-back defeats by the Cleveland Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals. Inside linebacker Teddye Buchanan described the team’s position as having its backs against the wall. Coach Jesse Minter stated that the squad is in an okay spot with a ten-game stretch remaining, offering them control over their fate.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson returns to the lineup after missing time with an ankle injury. He acknowledged on Friday that he still feels pain when planting his left foot. Jackson’s presence significantly alters the offensive efficiency. In his 211 snaps this season, the Ravens posted a 15.2% explosive play rate. Without him, that figure dropped to 7.2%, a mark that would rank 28th in the league.

Wide receiver Zay Flowers has averaged 7.84 yards per route run in eight quarters played alongside Jackson. Running back Derrick Henry has scored seven rushing touchdowns in 75 attempts with Jackson on the field. In 72 attempts without him, Henry has not scored a rushing touchdown. Flowers noted that seeing Jackson on the field provides a jump start for the offense.

The Bills lead the NFL in explosive play rate at 15.6%, but their defense has struggled to generate pressure. Buffalo ranks second to last in pressure rate at 30%. The team has generated pressure on only 32.1% of its blitzes. Defensive linemen Deone Walker and Ed Oliver will test the Ravens’ interior line, which is missing starting right guard Vega Ioane due to a knee injury.

The NFL trade deadline arrives on November 10. The Athletics playoff simulator projects a 55% chance for the Ravens to make the playoffs and a 17% chance to win the AFC North. If Baltimore beats the Bills and the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) in Baltimore on Thursday, those figures rise to 80% and 31%, respectively. A four-game losing streak would reduce those odds to 34% and 8%. Splitting the next two games would leave playoff odds at 59%.

General manager Eric DeCosta faces a decision point following this stretch. A resurgent week could increase the likelihood of roster additions, while a 4-5 record could have the opposite effect. The Bills’ running back James Cook averages 5.4 yards per carry from the under-center but only 4.9 yards on shotgun handoffs. The Ravens have allowed just 3.5 yards per play against under-center formations this season.