Lula Reverses 2.2 Million Vote Deficit to Take Brazil Presidency

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth term as president of Brazil on Sunday, defeating far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff. With nearly 99% of ballots counted, Lula captured 51.75% of the vote against 48.25% for Bolsonaro. This victory erased a 2.2 million vote deficit from the first round, leaving Lula ahead by 4.3 million votes.

The turnaround relied heavily on voter participation. The first round in early October saw a record abstention rate of 21.08%, a figure that hurt Lula disproportionately because his supporters often live farther from polling stations. In the runoff, abstention dropped to 19.21%. No candidate who finished second in the first round had ever won the runoff since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s.

Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, first entered politics as a union leader in São Paulo’s industrial suburbs in the late 1970s. He lost three presidential bids in 1989, 1994, and 1998 before winning in 2002. He served two consecutive terms, left office, and returned in 2022 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro, the father of this year’s opponent.

The result marks a setback for the Bolsonaro family. Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup, lives under house arrest in Brasília. He had hoped to be freed and given a role in government if his son won. His son watched the count from Brasília, where reactions to the loss included anger and bewilderment.

The outcome also disrupts the strategy of US President Donald Trump. Trump had sought to align Brazil with a group of pro-Trump leaders in Latin America, including Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, José Antonio Kast in Chile, and Javier Milei in Argentina.

Supporters demonstrated their strength on Saturday, with more than a million people gathering on Rio’s Copacabana beach and an even larger crowd marching on Paulista Avenue in São Paulo. On Sunday evening, hundreds returned to Paulista Avenue to watch the count, waving red flags bearing Lula’s face. Camilo Buarque, 35, told reporters, "This is democracy."

Anger in São Paulo also focused on an apparent attempt by pro-Bolsonaro politicians to disrupt the vote by sabotaging public transport in areas that lean toward Lula. Lucas Lopes, 32, called the effort "another coup attempt." The alleged sabotage failed. Caio Marques, 40, a photographer from Franca, noted, "In the first round the left failed. But in the second round they woke up." Reginaldo Lopes, a key Lula ally, described the outcome as Brazil sending a message to the world about the extreme right.