$300 Million Raised Against California's 5% Billionaire Tax Ahead of Vote

A flyer about a proposed tax on wealthy Californians landed in Brian Galle's mailbox, but the UC Berkeley professor found claims inside that he had not written.

Galle, a coauthor of the measure, saw statements saying the tax could apply to anyone, including retirement savings. Californians have received similar flyers and seen matching advertisements as the November 3 election nears. The proposal asks voters to approve a one-time 5 percent tax on the assets held by the state's billionaires.

David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University who tracks state and local elections, said the spending by opponents makes this the most expensive ballot measure ever. Donors including Google co-founder Sergey Brin, DoorDash founder Tony Xu, Stripe co-founder Patrick Collison, Ripple co-executive chairman Chris Larsen, and venture capitalists John Doerr, Michael Moritz, and Vinod Khosla have contributed more than $300 million to block the tax. Supporters have raised $32 million.

Ashley Craig, a volunteer for the group Patriotic Millionaires, said she spends months knocking on doors and calling voters. She often hears claims about the measure's reach. "They often tell me there are secret provisions allowing everyone to be taxed, which is not entirely true," she said. Changing the tax would require a two-thirds vote in the assembly and must stay true to the spirit of the proposal.

Francesco Trebbi, the BT Rocca professor of Business and Public Policy at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business, pointed to the Citizens United v FEC ruling by the US Supreme Court, which allows companies and special groups to spend freely on elections. "This has led to this situation where Sergey Brin has a lot more of a political voice," Trebbi said. "It's Sergey Brin v millions of Californians. This leads people to lose trust in the system."

The state Democratic party has endorsed the measure, but Governor Gavin Newsom has opposed it, as have Democratic candidate for governor Xavier Becerra and former congresswoman Katie Porter. Newsom, who is eyeing a 2028 presidential run, has called the proposal "poorly written." Suzane Jiminez, chief of staff at the SEIU health workers union that sponsored the measure, said the campaign has confidence in the vote count and that 3,000 volunteers have fanned out in recent weeks to knock on doors. A Public Policy Institute of California poll found voters back the tax by a small margin, along with two other measures that would block it. Mark Baldassare, the institute's statewide survey director, said only about a third of citizen initiatives pass.

Two other ballot measures on the November 3 ballot would limit new state taxes on personal property or require state auditors to review tax proposals before voters decide on them. If those measures draw more votes than the billionaire tax, they could negate it even if it passes.